Friday, September 27, 2019

Is Laying the Favourite a Profitable Betting Strategy?

You may read that question and think that I am crazy but hear me out. Obviously the favorite is the favorite for a reason; because it has the highest chance of winning. It is the horse that out of all the others is most likely to finish first in the race. However does it finish first? And does it fail enough times to make laying the favorite a profitable strategy?
I don't think anyone can answer that question with any real degree of accuracy but what I can tell you is this. Blanket laying of the favorite will not help you become a profitable gambler. This means that you cannot just log-in to betfair and just lay off every single favorite in every race and expect to make long term profits, it just does not work like that.
If, however, you were to research individual favorites and find ones that are more likely to not win the race than their odds are dictating then you may be on to a profitable system. The secret to this is to find horses that cannot win the race and also finding other horses that can win in its place.
There are a number of ways of doing this. I like to look at what I call 'overnight' favorites. Meaning if you take a look at the odds of horses the day before a race and then take a look at them on the day itself and the odds have moved down considerably then it could be a possible lay as the only reason that horse is the favorite is public pressure not racing pedigree.

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